Don’t write the Packers into the Super Bowl just yet. Just as Green Bay has finally shown some chinks in its armor in December, its primary challengers for NFC supremacy are looking more and more formidable.

New Orleans has been the best team in the league of late, with a seven-game win streak that includes victories over playoff teams in the Falcons (twice) and the Lions as well as a 25-point blowout of the Giants. Drew Brees, who broke Dan Marino’s single-season passing yardage record with one game to spare, has his offense operating with head-turning efficiency. The streaking Saints have averaged 498 yards in their last five games.

The Packers’ other main NFC roadblock excels on the other side of the ball.

The 49ers, who showed their playoff chops with a 20-3 pounding of Pittsburgh two weeks ago, the Steelers’ lowest scoring output in more than four years, boast a punishing defense the likes of which Aaron Rodgers & Co. haven’t seen this year. San Francisco allows 13.5 points per game, the best mark of any team in the last five years, and leads the league in turnover margin at +26, four better than Green Bay.

Meanwhile, the Packers have shown in the last month that they may not be the slam-dunk Super Bowl team that their white-hot start indicated.

First, the Giants gave the defending champs all they could handle, succumbing only after Rodgers’ final-minute heroics lifted the Packers to a 38-35 triumph. Then two weeks later, Green Bay suffered a surprising stumble at then-5-8 Kansas City, losing 19-14 to suffer its first blemish.

Even the seemingly invincible Rodgers came back to earth a bit, registering his season low in passer rating and completion percentage in three straight games before responding with a five-touchdown gem against Chicago.

The Packers’ invincible aura is certainly gone.

The New York game showed Green Bay could be vulnerable in a shootout — just the type of affair it would likely have if it meets New Orleans in the NFC Championship game. Yes, the Packers prevailed 42-34 at Lambeau in the teams’ season-opening matchup. But the Saints’ versatile rushing attack and Brees’ pyrotechnics in the passing game mean New Orleans (12-3) is uniquely positioned to grapple with Green Bay in a high-scoring affair.

Then the Kansas City defense did what appeared impossible, dictating pace and style to the NFL’s top-scoring offense, albeit a shorthanded Packer unit. The Chiefs’ harassment of Rodgers in a four-sack showing now stands as the blueprint for teams that would favor forcing Green Bay into a grind-it-out, ball-control game — otherwise known as the San Francisco special.

The 12-3 49ers have mastered the art of dismantling opponents’ offensive flow. Teams have all but given up trying to run on San Francisco’s stone wall of a front seven — the runaway league leader in run defense became the first team in NFL history not to allow a rushing touchdown through 14 games before Seattle’s Marshawn Lynch finally broke through for a score last week. Forcing opponents into a one-dimensional game plan allows an opportunistic secondary and disciplined pass rush to wreak havoc.

A potential Green Bay-San Francisco showdown in the NFC Championship would be the most anticipated playoff matchup of the year. The best offense (the Packers average 34.3 points) against a historically stout defense. Rodgers, who is threatening to break Peyton Manning’s single-season passer rating mark, facing a 49er defense that has amassed 36 takeaways, including at least three in eight games.

While it’s easy to foresee a Packers-Saints matchup as another pinball-like game in which points pile up at a dizzying rate, it’s a mystery how Green Bay would fair against San Francisco. The Packers haven’t faced a single team ranked in the top 14 in scoring defense.

At this juncture, it appears that Green Bay would have its hands full against either the Saints or the 49ers. But the saving grace for the defending champs is that they would only have to face one of those challengers — in an NFC Championship matchup at Lambeau.

That the 14-1 Packers have positioned themselves to have an easier divisional round game is why they still have to be considered the favorite to reach the Super Bowl. But make no mistake, what earlier seemed a Green Bay stranglehold on NFC preeminence has loosened considerably.

 

Just one month ago, we wondered whether Aaron Rodgers would shatter every significant single season quarterback record in NFL. Back then, the Green Bay Packers gunslinger was on pace to surpass Marino’s passing yards mark, Brees’ completion rate, Manning’s passer rating clip and Brady’s TD record.

Now, just four increasingly human performances later, and not only are those records out of reach, but Rodgers has also opened the door for what once seemed like an inconceivable MVP debate.

Rodgers’ numbers in that last four Packers’ games:

11/24 @ DET—CMP%: 68% QB RAT: 117

12/4 @ NYG—CMP%: 61% QB RAT: 106

12/11 vs. OAK—CMP%: 57% QB RAT: 97

12/18 @ KC—CMP%: 47% QB RAT: 80

Meanwhile, Drew Brees has elevated his play, eclipsing Rodgers in a few statistical categories and even gaining supporters for his own MVP bid in the process.

Atlanta Falcons coach Mike Smith, for instance, made the case for Brees when he said: “Drew’s having in my mind an MVP season, there’s no doubt about that. … He’s distributing the ball extremely well. They’re a top 10 team in running the football, the No. 1 team in total yards, No. 2 in points. Just to watch him operate, he looks very comfortable back there running the offense. It’s just amazing to watch him go out and run that offense. I hope he’s at his highest level because if he plays any better I don’t know if there’s any way to stop him.”

Similarly, ESPN columnist and MVP voter, Ashley Fox, echoed Smith: “If New Orleans wins its last two regular-season games, against Atlanta and Carolina, and—as expected—Brees obliterates Dan Marino’s 27-year-old record for passing yards in a season, I will be hard-pressed to vote for Rodgers over Brees.”

Personally, I agree with Smith and Fox that Brees’ gaudy stats are nearly impossible overlook, but Rodgers’ are equally as freakish. Particularly, I think that the fact that Rodgers scores more, while turning the ball over less, gives him the edge.

But, what do you think?

Here are the numbers:

Aaron Rodgers

Green Bay Packers (13-1)

2011-12 – Passing Yards: 4360 Yds/Gm: 311 TD: 40 INT: 6 QB RAT: 120 COMP%: 68%

Drew Brees

New Orleans Saints (11-3)

2011-12—Passing Yards: 4780 Yds/Gm: 341 TD: 37 INT: 11 QB RAT: 109 COMP%: 72%

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• WHO: Chicago Bears (7-7) at Green Bay Packers (13-1).

• WHEN: Sunday, 7:20 p.m., NBC.

• OPENING LINE – Packers by 12 1/2.

• RECORD VS. SPREAD – Bears 7-7; Green Bay 9-5.

• SERIES RECORD – Bears lead 92-85-6. Last meeting: Packers beat
Bears 27-17, Sept. 25

• LAST WEEK – Bears lost to Seahawks 38-14; Packers lost to Chiefs
19-14.

• NFL RANKINGS: Bears’ offense, overall (24), rushing (10), passing
(25); Bears’ defense, overall (17), rushing (8), passing (27).
Packers’ offense, overall (4), rushing (25), passing (4); Packers’
defense, overall (31), rushing (12), passing (31).

• FACT & FIGURES: Packers can clinch home-field advantage in
NFC with win, or San Francisco loss, on Sunday. … Packers’ loss
at Kansas City last Sunday broke 19-game winning streak and was
first loss in nearly a year, having lost at New England on Dec. 19,
2010. … Will be fourth meeting between Bears and Packers in 2011.
Two teams faced off in 2010 regular season finale, NFC championship
game, and earlier this season. … QB Aaron Rodgers is first
Packers player and fifth player overall in NFL history to throw
40-plus touchdowns in season. … Five of WR Jordy Nelson’s 10
touchdowns this season have been for 35-plus yards. … WR Donald
Driver has 9,979 yards receiving and needs 21 to become the Packers
player with 10,000. … CB Charles Woodson has five interceptions
against Bears. Since joining Packers in 2006, Woodson has 37
interceptions and nine interception returns for touchdowns. …
Bears would be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss. …
Josh McCown replaces Caleb Hanie as Bears starting QB after Hanie
struggled in wake of Jay Cutler’s thumb injury. McCown hasn’t
started a game since Dec. 23, 2007, for Oakland against
Jacksonville. … Cutler remains out, and RB Matt Forte expected to
remain sidelined with knee injury. … Including NFC championship
game, Bears LB Brian Urlacher aims for third game in row vs.
Packers with an interception. … Bears DE Julius Peppers had sack
and fumble recovery in last game vs. Packers. Since entering NFL in
2002, Peppers is tied for third in league with 99 sacks.

- The AP.

The Green Bay Packers (13-1) return home to Lambeau Field and host the Chicago Bears (7-7) on Christmas night. It’s just the second time the Packers have played on Christmas; the only other time was in 2005 and that game was also against the Bears at Lambeau Field. Chicago won that game 24-17.

The Packers’ chance at an undefeated season ended at Kansas City on December 18th with a 19-14 loss to the Chiefs. The loss itself wasn’t as disturbing as the way the game was lost. The Packers high octane offense was largely shut down by the Kansas City defense, and the Chiefs’ offense maintained control of the ball with time consuming drives that kept Aaron Rodgers and company off the field. Green Bay’s defense allowed 438 yards and had no sacks, and no answer for Chiefs’ quarterback Kyle Orton. Injuries to the Packers’ offensive line have reached a critical stage; Aaron Rodgers was under constant pressure and was sacked four times.

The Bears come into the game with injury problems of their own with quarterback Jay Cutler, running back Matt Forte, and wide receiver Johnny Knox out. After going 0-4 with Caleb Hanie filling in for Cutler, Bears coach Lovie Smith will start Josh McCown at quarterback. McCown replaced Hanie late in the Bears loss to the Seattle Seahawks on December 18th, but before that, he hadn’t played in the NFL since 2009. Forte is the Bears leading rusher, and Knox is the leading receiver. With all this top talent out of action, it’s no wonder the Bears have scored just 27 points in their last three games.

Green Bay’s offense struggled last week against Kansas City’s defense, but the Packers also hurt themselves by dropping passes and committing penalties. The Packer receivers will have to adjust to not having Greg Jennings until the playoffs. They still have plenty of receivers, but Jermichael Finley and Jordy Nelson in particular will need to step up. The makeshift offensive line will have to protect Rodgers better than it did against Kansas City. Although tackle Chad Clifton is nearing a return from his back and hamstring injuries, he may still not be ready. His replacement, Marshall Newhouse, has not been impressive and will be up against Bears’ defensive end and team sack leader Julius Peppers.

With their offense struggling, the best and probably only shot the Bears have at winning is for their defense to keep the Packer’s offense off the field as much as possible. The Bears still have an outside shot at the playoffs with a victory, and Green Bay will clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win so both teams are motivated. The Bears defense will hold down the Packers’ scoring, but not enough for Chicago’s depleted offense to overcome. The Packers should bounce back from their first defeat and win in a low scoring game.

Mark Hudziak is a Featured Contributor in Sports for the Yahoo! Contributor Network. He has been a fan of the Green Bay Packers since the Vince Lombardi Era.

Sources:

Chicago Bears.com

Chicago Bears Yahoo! Sports Site

Green Bay Packers.com

Green Bay Packers Yahoo! Sports site

Packers: Scouting the Chicago Bears

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KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) — Mike McCarthy never put a whole lot of stock in a perfect season, except as a means of gaining
home-field advantage and setting the
Green Bay Packers
up for another Super Bowl run.

Well, they still have a chance to earn home-field advantage.

The perfect season? That’s history.

Kyle Orton
threw for 299 yards to outduel
Aaron Rodgers
, and the
Kansas City Chiefs
rallied behind interim coach Romeo Crennel for a shocking 19-14 victory on Sunday that ended the Packers’ 19-game winning
streak. It was their first loss since Dec. 19, 2010, at New England.

“I personally always viewed the undefeated season as, really, just gravy,” McCarthy said. “The goal was to get home-field
advantage and win the Super Bowl. That’s what we discussed.

“We were fortunate enough to be in the position to possibly achieve the undefeated season,” he added, “but we still have the
primary goal in front of us, and that’s to get home-field advantage.”

Green Bay, playing without leading receiver
Greg Jennings
and top rusher
James Starks
because of injuries, can wrap up the No. 1 seed in their final two games against Chicago and Detroit. But the Packers no longer
have the pressure of becoming the second team in NFL history to win a Super Bowl with a perfect record, or extending the second-longest
winning streak in league history.

“I think our goal ultimate goal is to win a Super Bowl. The next step is getting that number one seed in the playoffs,” Rodgers
said. “We’ve got a home playoff game – we’ve got a bye secured.”

Rodgers was 17 of 35 for 235 yards and a touchdown, and he also scampered 8 yards for another touchdown with 2:12 left in
the game. But the Packers (13-1) were unable to recover the onside kick, and Kansas City picked up a couple of first downs
to secure the victory.

“They had a good game plan,” Rodgers said. “You have to give them credit.”

Ryan Succop
kicked four field goals for Kansas City (6-8), which had lost five of its last six games and fired coach Todd Haley last Monday.

Jackie Battle
added a short touchdown plunge with 4:53 left in the game, points that came in handy when Rodgers led one last scoring drive.

“Everybody had marked it off as a win for the Packers, but those guys in the locker room, they’re football players,” Crennel
said. “They decided they were not going to lay down, they were not going to give up, so they went out and played a tremendous
game.”

Neither team looked all that tremendous in the first half.

Packers wide receiver
Jordy Nelson
was hit twice with offensive pass interference, Rodgers was harassed by the Chiefs’ weak pass rush, and Green Bay wound up
making five first downs.

One of them came when Kansas City’s
Jeremy Horne
ran into Packers punter
Tim Masthay
, giving them 15 free yards. The Chiefs tried to give Green Bay another gift later on the drive when
Mason Crosby
missed a 59-yard field goal attempt but Kansas City had 12 men on the field.

With another chance from 54 yards, the normally reliable Crosby still pushed the kick right.

Rodgers finished the half 6 of 17 for 59 yards, with a handful of drops between wide receiver
Donald Driver
and tight end
Jermichael Finley
. In fact, things were going so badly for Green Bay that at one point it ran out of the wildcat despite having one of the
best quarterbacks in the game.

The Chiefs were still clinging to a 6-0 lead when Rodgers finally hit down field, finding Finley over top the coverage for
a 41-yard gain. Three plays later, the Packers’ star quarterback hit Driver in the corner of the end zone for a 7-6 lead with
8:04 left in the third quarter.

Kansas City answered when Orton hit his own tight end,
Leonard Pope
, for a career-long 38-yard catch. Jon Baldwin added a 17-yard grab to set up Succop’s 46-yard, go-ahead field goal.

The Packers moved into field-goal range on their ensuing drive, but rather than have Crosby attempt a 56-yard kick in the
same direction he had already missed, McCarthy elected to go for it on fourth-and-9. Rodgers’ pass fell incomplete and the
Chiefs took over.

They needed seven plays to cover 59 yards, but had to settle for another field goal and a 12-7 lead. It was the third time
the Chiefs drove inside the 5 and had six total points to show for it.

They got seven on their next trip, though.

With first-and-goal at the 5,
Thomas Jones
managed to gain a yard and Le’Ron McClain bulled ahead for three more, setting up third down from just outside the goal line.
Battle took the carry over the right side and powered into the end zone, giving the woeful Kansas City offense its highest-scoring
game since the Chiefs beat San Diego in overtime in late October.

The Packers marched down field in the closing minutes, and Rodgers showed his moxie by scampering around the end for a touchdown
that made it 19-14, but that was as close as they got.

Green Bay came into the game averaging nearly 36 points, but was held to its lowest total since beating the
Chicago Bears
10-3 in Week 17 last year. The Packers needed to win that game to make the playoffs, and wound up riding the momentum to a
Super Bowl victory over the
Pittsburgh Steelers
.

All that momentum finally came to an end against the most unlikely of scenarios.

“We set the tone on both sides of the ball,” Chiefs linebacker
Derrick Johnson
said. “This is the great thing about football. You can’t always look at the records, because you’ve got grown men out there
who are all getting paid. You don’t have to be better on paper.

“If you’re better on that given Sunday, you’ll get the win.”

Notes: Succop has made 21 consecutive field goals. … Palko was inactive for Kansas City. … The Chiefs wound up having
the ball for 36:11, while Green Bay had it for 23:49. … Kansas City won despite going 1 for 5 in the red zone. … Packers
OL
Derek Sherrod
broke his leg in the fourth quarter. He was playing in place of
Bryan Bulaga
, who went down with a knee strain.

© 2011 STATS LLC